Below are pictures from the start of the 2017 Race to Alaska. Raining lightly with little wind, the human powered craft took command and were the first to reach Victoria. A front was forecasted for later in the afternoon with winds rising sharply from near zero to 25 - 30 knots.
As teams had 36 hours to get to Victoria, decisions had to be made. From a macro view, there were three choices:
1. Go, but with the knowledge that your boat speed can out run the front and get to Victoria before the blow
2. Go, but without the knowledge that you can out run the front
3. Stay or work your way on the US side then hunker down and make the crossing Friday
The faster human powered craft were in a position to control their own destiny. The weather appeared a little late in developing by perhaps an hour or 90 minutes, but the faster human powered craft clearly had a good day. They made it across in time.
The teams that either stayed or made their way to Dungeness Spit also had a good day. Knowing what was to come, they displayed seamanship well.
The more seaworthy craft with slower options for powering their craft without wind likely believed they could take on the wind and deal with it. This fits a large bandwidth of the boats at the start. They either were the larger craft or the well designed smaller mono hulls that can take a blow, albeit with some discomfort. Shorten sail, put in the hatch boards to prevent water from coming into the interior and sail conservatively. As my father often said, there's nothing more seaworthy than a tightly corked bottle.
There was a segment of the fleet that were largely open sailboats of various types with slower means of self propulsion. They were fine getting into and out of harbors and ok for paddling/rowing/pedaling with no wind and slower speeds, but can not sustain speeds more than 3 or so knots without wind. This group had a tough go on Thursday.
I once heard a talk by Jim Whittaker on the topic of 'experience'. Jim was the first American to summit Mount Everest. Now in his 80's, the reflection of 'experience' went back to his teens and 20's when he climbed with his twin brother Lou. They occasionally worked themselves into devilish positions while climbing where only risky moves would save them. Clearly they lived to tell the tale, but they'd carefully review which of the earlier decisions led them into the predicament, learn from it, and vow not to make that decision again. That's how experience is earned.
Kristen, from team Kelp texted me after they landed at Oak Bay. They were one of the small boats with slower means of human propulsion, but their 20' boat, to my eye, looked sound and if sailed well would service them fine. She indicated the sea states were difficult and they were unable to sail their intended course. She said that while they didn't hit any, they learned a lot about lee shores. They ended up tying at Oak Bay -- not what they wanted, but a smart move. She and Elena gained experience. I suspect it will serve them well.
Two other teams required assistance and their stories will come out in time. One small boat overturned. He apparently self rescued, but ended up in Friday Harbor and likely was towed in. The open aluminum boat and another vessel ended up on San Juan Island.
As I write, the ones that stayed in Port Townsend are riding the ebb out to the straits with a much better forecast. I have a hunch experience played into their decision making.
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